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Liblog : 9th media

新媒体创意工场 Socal Engage & Digital Marketing

 
 
 

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Social media RIO:一个粉丝值多少钱  

2012-03-20 21:58:58|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Facebook 已经过了穿开裆裤的年纪,新浪微博已经不尿床了,连最年幼的Pinterest们也已经脱离了爬行动物的行列了。但是,那么多年过去了,我们依然为效果衡量纠结和挣扎。

尼玛僵尸粉的价格和中国汽油的价格成反比,开始是按个卖,4毛钱1个,现在都是论千算了,1000个粉丝24元人民币。 那么,我们是不是真正想过一个微博的粉丝究竟值多少钱?

首先我们可能要给粉丝的价值下一个定义。看一看syncape的定义Value (of a fan) is reflected not simply by the action of being a “fan” but rather the value of the audience. 一个衡量一个粉丝的价值不仅仅是从他/她的行为来衡量,更重要的是要他们本身带来的价值。如果改成一句简单的人话就是粉丝的价值不仅仅体现在和品牌发生了互动(转发和评论),更重要的是他/她现在和未来能为品牌带来的价值,要考量下面的5个要素:

1. Product Spending: The ability to understand the methodology of increasing product spending.
2. Loyalty: The ability to understand the available means to influence and promote brand loyalty within a target audience.
3. Propensity to Recommend: Probability and propensity for word-of-mouth recommendations leading to sales.
4. Brand Affinity: The impact on brand perception and recall.
5. Media Value:Efficiencies of earned reach and frequency via the  platform.
6. Acquisition CostEfficiency of Fans in enticing others to participateand drive organic membership.

一个粉丝价值的核心是,和不是粉丝的消费者相比,他/她对品牌带来的价值。
? On average, fans spend an additional $71.84 on products for which they are fans compared to those who are not fans. 
? Fans are 28% more likely than non-fans to continue using the brand.
? Fans are 41% more likely than non-fans to recommend a fanned product to their friends.
(数据来源Syncapes: Value of a Facebook Fan. )

依据这一算法,我们得出的一个Facebook 粉丝的价值 136美元。 

Social media RIO:一个粉丝值多少钱 - liblog - Liblog 第九传媒
 
当然,每个品牌的粉丝构成不同,所以每个品牌的粉丝价值平均值也是不同的。从下图的数据看出,数码手机、日化服装品牌以及体育用品的粉丝价值平均是最高的。  

Social media RIO:一个粉丝值多少钱 - liblog - Liblog 第九传媒
 




但是尽管这一说法得到了很多支持。但是Vitrue 用一个看起来还精准的模型进行了测算,得出了完全不同的结果。每个Facebook 粉丝的价值只有3.6美元。详细解释如下:

A couple assumptions they make right up front are that each status update posted by the brand generates an average of 1 new media impression for each fan of their brand. They also assume that the brand is posting two updates per day. Lastly, they placed a value to each impression by assigning a $5 CPM which translates to $300,000 in earned media per month or $3.6 million annually for a fan page with 1 million fans. Here is the mathematical equation if you’re interested:

1M impressions x 2 posts x 30 days = 60M impressions

60M impressions / 1000 x $5 CPM = $300,000

$300,000 x 12 months = $3.6M

$3.6M / 1M fans = $3.60




但是,这一算法看似严谨,但是爱德曼Edelman 前主席Rick Murray 指出这个算法忽略了下面最重要的三个变量:

  • The quantity of engagement (frequency) 粉丝与品牌的互动频率
  • The size of their personal networks (reach) 粉丝自己的粉丝质量和覆盖
  • The value of the actions they and their fans take 粉丝和他们粉丝采取的行为

下面是 Chris Lightner 对这一算法的补充 

 leveraging “additional impressions generated by fans” in combination with a known media value of $5 CPM. But this $3.60 valuation heavily relies on the fact that the brand needs to post 730 status updates a year (or twice a day) to reach that $3.60 assumed value per fan. Two posts a day? This seems extremely high, even for the most active brands mentioned in this article (over engagement can result in loss of fans, no?). They’re taking the 1M customers and multiplying by 60 posts a month (each customer generating an additional impression), then valuing those impressions at a $5 CPM.

But, what if you’re like the real Starbucks Facebook page (Edelman client) that exists in real life and only posts 0.67 posts per day (I sampled the past 30 days and counted 20 posts), then what? Let’s use their real numbers:

6.8M Fans, x 20 Status Updates (0.67 per day for one month) x 1 additional impression per fan, x $5 CPM

If my math is correct (it is, I checked), that comes out to $680,000 in monthly value. Annualized, that’s $8,160,000 in media value. Divide that by their number of fans and you have a value of $1.20 per fan. This is using the exact process outlined in this article and makes perfect sense since the actual calculation uses 20 posts per month instead of 60, exactly 1/3 the number quoted in the article (and a result exactly 1/3 of the $3.60 stated in the article). So where did the 2 posts per day come from? If you posted 10 times a day would your fans be worth $18 in media value? I’m having trouble agreeing with that.

Let’s touch on the “1 impression per fan” assumption one more time. This is a key metric to consider when calculating the media value from social, but you also need to consider the connectivity of fans (and thus impressions generated from brand posts) is going to vary greatly from brand to brand. I looked at the fan pages for three of our larger clients and found that the impressions generated per fan per post were extremely different. This was due largely in part to the type of fans attracted to their page, as well as the type of content the brand is posting to their feed. The impressions generated per fan varied from 0.55 impressions to 1.2 impressions, all the way up to 4 impressions per fan per post! Make sure you know how many impressions are generated from your posts before you move forward with this calculation (available to the administrators of Facebook fan pages).

下面是根据上面的算法得出的不同平台的粉丝价值:

Facebook Infographic



新浪微博粉丝价值的测算如下 












腾讯微博粉丝价值的测算如下 














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